Must wins:

Bama must win all their home games.

Alabama is 13-7 (26)

Georgia at home (3)

Ole Miss at home (75)

South Carolina at home (31)

Auburn at home (24)

And must win at least one…

Road Games…

Tennessee ( 40)

Mississippi State (27)

LSU (61)

And it if the Tide could win two SEC games it would help. Clearly, Bama's RPI is going to remain in the top 30, and probably in the top 25. That type RPI should get the team into the field of 65.

One problem that Alabama has is the increasing belief they can't beat anyone on the road. What part does that play in the Tide's chances?

There are four (4) factors the selection committee looks at to determine teams that do not automatically gain a berth.

1st – The winning percentage against other Division one schools. Division II schools don't count unless you lose. This constitutes 25% of the RPI. This will "likely" help Alabama unless they really lose three more gamers.

2nd – The winning percentage of teams you won or lost too. That counts for 50% of the RPI. Your game itself doesn't count. Also the opponent's strength of schedule. In other words it helps to lose to winning teams, hurts to lose to teams with losing records, and if you lose a game you hope that team has a good RPI. This will help Alabama.

3rd – This one is a little tricky it is the percentage of wins and RPI that your opponent's opponent's have. A big help to Alabama because the SEC plays good teams, and those teams also play good teams. Example – Alabama beats Georgia, who beat Kentucky, who beat Indiana.

4th – The fear factor of coaches – bonus RPI points are awarded for.

Your normal unadjusted RPI

Your non-conference opponents regular season RPI. Example – Bama beat Xavier who has an RPI of 23. They lost to Utah who has an RPI of 21. These are greatly helpful to Bama if they actually win, and could help them if they lose.

And this is where it gets tricky – other than A and B above you count any other game (conference games for example) if the team is in the top fifty RPI rated teams that you beat, and it counts less against you for teams in the lower 150 RPI schools if you lose. In other words beat a top 50 school and you get a bonus point. Lose to Alabama State and you lose a point. Beat Alabama State and it really doesn't matter except for your winning percentage, but lose one and it hurts. Beat a top fifty school like Auburn and it gives you a bonus point. If you lose to a non-division one school you lose a point. Exhibition games don't count.

All in all the RPI really helps the Tide. But other "subjective factors" are believed to be involved, although the committee will not admit to them. Close losses are better than big losses (not helpful for Bama), road record to show that if you show up on the West coast you won't embarrass yourself (won't help us although our neutral court record will), and how you finish up. And since Bama was once ranked number one the committee isn't likely to make their own coaches look like idiots by excluding Bama. My best bet is that if Bama wins 18 they are in. I also think they are probably in at 17 unless something crazy happens in post season tourneys.